The US empire's collapse is being accelerated by a lethal combination of moral, military, and economic blunders. When you're driving on ice, stay off the brakes!
What do you do when you're in the back of the bus, careening down the icy highway? I guess insulate yourself with as much bubble wrap as much as you can, then curl up into as small ball as you can. And kiss your ass goodbye. 🤷
My gut tells me the Tariff War is the first step in attacking China, not only by hitting China with insane Tariffs rates but by hitting other important markets for China in preparation for attacking Iran. These Tariffs are intended to bring down/destroy demand in all the other world's economies that are tied into China. Yes, This will create economic chaos that will weaken both Washington and China, but like the Sanctions War on Russia, the neo-conservative elites who favor this plan believe they can keep the fraud of American style democracy going while single party China will descend into chaos. There is a lot of infighting naturally among the elites but the old money will win out since Trump is really killing his base on their orders.
The 2nd step is to wreck the Middle East, cut off gas and oil exports which support both China and China's export markets outside of the USA. Attacking Iran will complete this step, even though it started before step 1, and get Iran to take most of the onus as they will hit the oil producers in the Gulf as a retaliation. Messy but the same ill-logic as step 1 applies to Washington Neo-conservative Thinking.
The third step, create proxy war over Taiwan to further isolate China inside the UN. It will further destroy all of the East Asian economy, plus cut off Australia, Japan, and Philippines from China, etc. If it accidentally turns into full out nuclear war, well that is a risk the neo-conservatives are willing to take as K.J. Noh pointed out. https://youtu.be/XuZZUsdLCiI?&t=1804
That's my estimation of their plan. I don't think it will work, as China and it's people can take a lot of pain, much more than Americans. I half suspect that while China will be hurt, it will look like a sweet paradise compared to what is going to go down in the EU, and a pretty decent shelter compared to the USA. I hope this forecast is way off, but that's my gut feeling. If the Tariffs stay where they are, that means the faction using Trump has won the battle of the oligarchs, for now.
1. Hit Iran hard to deprive China an important oil source. A bad hit also convinces Saudi Arabia to stay in the line. Most importantly, the Israeli masters have become impatient. However, the Yemen experience for the US Navy may have given the US top brass second thoughts.
2. Tariff is the first step of hitting China, true. Other tactics will be used or increased, from student visa to export control.
3. US is not ready for a proxy war using Taiwan as USN now has a depleted SM 2/3/6 inventory. The existing inventory for the seventh fleet is far from enough to do the job. The proxy war has to wait a couple of years. Furthermore, once some tech heads think they have transplanted TSMC technology, I think they will tell ASML to activate a kill-switch or simply bomb TSMC factories when they think Taiwan is to fall into the hands of China. China was somewhat defendable up to 1970. But after the Vietnam War finished, a large force of PLA moved from northern Vietnam to face Taiwan. After 1979, the situation changed to favor China if by quantities only. After China joined WTO, then there is also a quality difference. For a proxy war to be possible, US will force Taiwan to buy a lot of weapons to balance the trade deficit. But past experiences suggest Taiwan will buy a bunch of obsolete equipment which do not suit Taiwan's needs, spend additional big bucks to upgrade, etc. Taiwan also needs time to train for these newer weapons.
The point of Taiwan isn't to really fight China, it's to get China to clobber Taiwan and thus ruin it's carefully crafted image, plus force Japan, Australia, and others to stop trade with China. It also gives an excuse for USA Navy to start interdicting Chinese Merchant ships far away from China.
Very good point. Most Chinese believe Taiwan should be taken from within. The military force's role should be only to move over and pick up the weapons. By forcing China to use force before it is ready will have severe consequences for China. But if the US pushes the trigger now, the outcome may not be what the US neocons conjectured to be. The time has to be after Taiwan has been up-gunned a bit.
However, China would not be isolated in the UN, and China probably doesn't care. For all the bad things about China, being realistic in their diplomacy is not one of their weakness. China needs a longer prep time to deal with Japan militarily, ignores Phillippine, and needs Australia only for minerals. Blocking the Strait of Malacca against Chinese shipping is enough cause for China to take countermeasures without infuriating the international community. Therefore I don't think the US will attempt a naval blockade easily. In comparison, tariffs, restrictions on visas in STEM fields, and export control hurt China quickly and deeply.
It's not my thinking... well it is, but it's my projection of what the neo-conservatives are thinking. The SMO with Russia should be an indication of my low opinion of their grasp on reality.
Thank you. And the China-Taiwan/US proxy war as conjectured by US neocons likely will have a different path from the SMO. To the minimal, Chinese in China are different from Russians, and Chinese in Taiwan are different from Ukrainians. The economic dependencies are different, etc. But I agree with you that based on the track record of the neocons, they will misjudge the situation and launch another proxy war by mistake. My hypothesis is that the US Navy and contractors for the Navy did not make much money from the current SMO and now here is their prize coming up.
In the old days of the USA and UK empire, the prize money from seazed merchant ships created a lot of the old family wealth in New England/England that went on to capitalize the opium trade with China. History attempts to rhyme, but it often comes out garbled.
I don't think their plans in different areas are that well coordinated. Re China - yes the plan is to create a shock everywhere. Then request fealty from those Asian countries that are still willing - in particular to have them stick to US/G7 financial services and not start using Yuan payments. They don't actually care about reciprocal tariffs, as evidenced by rejection of the "0% for 0%" by Taiwan and Vietnam.
The domestic investment, if there's money for it left after tax cuts and military spending increase, will fall far short of equalizing trade deficit. Pretty sure they plan, instead, to have G7 assist in devaluation/inflation while supporting capital flow to the US (ie by sacrificing their own domestic investment). Thus diluting the substantial % of US assets accumulated in last 40 years by US trade partners. At the same time, tax cuts and other predatory shenanigans will keep the wealthy within the US - at least those who sing Trump's tune - from having their wealth diluted at the expense of debtors (esp the general public).
But as we've already seen a bunch, the Trump/Biden crews are arrogant, overconfident, badly informed about those they antagonize, while the rest of the world has their character pretty well figured out by now.
What do you do when you're in the back of the bus, careening down the icy highway? I guess insulate yourself with as much bubble wrap as much as you can, then curl up into as small ball as you can. And kiss your ass goodbye. 🤷
Yup,
They went MADA
They made America destroyed again.
But it would be even worse with ScKamala Harris...who put me in jail.
If we are all all in jail now, maybe someone will dental floss the bars
Thank you Garland!
Excellent column!
Bravo Sir! As astute an analysis as ever.
Well said!
My gut tells me the Tariff War is the first step in attacking China, not only by hitting China with insane Tariffs rates but by hitting other important markets for China in preparation for attacking Iran. These Tariffs are intended to bring down/destroy demand in all the other world's economies that are tied into China. Yes, This will create economic chaos that will weaken both Washington and China, but like the Sanctions War on Russia, the neo-conservative elites who favor this plan believe they can keep the fraud of American style democracy going while single party China will descend into chaos. There is a lot of infighting naturally among the elites but the old money will win out since Trump is really killing his base on their orders.
The 2nd step is to wreck the Middle East, cut off gas and oil exports which support both China and China's export markets outside of the USA. Attacking Iran will complete this step, even though it started before step 1, and get Iran to take most of the onus as they will hit the oil producers in the Gulf as a retaliation. Messy but the same ill-logic as step 1 applies to Washington Neo-conservative Thinking.
The third step, create proxy war over Taiwan to further isolate China inside the UN. It will further destroy all of the East Asian economy, plus cut off Australia, Japan, and Philippines from China, etc. If it accidentally turns into full out nuclear war, well that is a risk the neo-conservatives are willing to take as K.J. Noh pointed out. https://youtu.be/XuZZUsdLCiI?&t=1804
That's my estimation of their plan. I don't think it will work, as China and it's people can take a lot of pain, much more than Americans. I half suspect that while China will be hurt, it will look like a sweet paradise compared to what is going to go down in the EU, and a pretty decent shelter compared to the USA. I hope this forecast is way off, but that's my gut feeling. If the Tariffs stay where they are, that means the faction using Trump has won the battle of the oligarchs, for now.
Not a bad hypothesis
Thanks, it's great to not feel as if I'm a paranoid loner. Now I'm just a bit paranoid, but no longer alone. 😉
Separately, I put in wrong link. I meant to include this interview of KJ Noh by Jamarl. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T9TlnHXymU&t=790s
Eh, probably a slight change in order?
1. Hit Iran hard to deprive China an important oil source. A bad hit also convinces Saudi Arabia to stay in the line. Most importantly, the Israeli masters have become impatient. However, the Yemen experience for the US Navy may have given the US top brass second thoughts.
2. Tariff is the first step of hitting China, true. Other tactics will be used or increased, from student visa to export control.
3. US is not ready for a proxy war using Taiwan as USN now has a depleted SM 2/3/6 inventory. The existing inventory for the seventh fleet is far from enough to do the job. The proxy war has to wait a couple of years. Furthermore, once some tech heads think they have transplanted TSMC technology, I think they will tell ASML to activate a kill-switch or simply bomb TSMC factories when they think Taiwan is to fall into the hands of China. China was somewhat defendable up to 1970. But after the Vietnam War finished, a large force of PLA moved from northern Vietnam to face Taiwan. After 1979, the situation changed to favor China if by quantities only. After China joined WTO, then there is also a quality difference. For a proxy war to be possible, US will force Taiwan to buy a lot of weapons to balance the trade deficit. But past experiences suggest Taiwan will buy a bunch of obsolete equipment which do not suit Taiwan's needs, spend additional big bucks to upgrade, etc. Taiwan also needs time to train for these newer weapons.
The point of Taiwan isn't to really fight China, it's to get China to clobber Taiwan and thus ruin it's carefully crafted image, plus force Japan, Australia, and others to stop trade with China. It also gives an excuse for USA Navy to start interdicting Chinese Merchant ships far away from China.
Very good point. Most Chinese believe Taiwan should be taken from within. The military force's role should be only to move over and pick up the weapons. By forcing China to use force before it is ready will have severe consequences for China. But if the US pushes the trigger now, the outcome may not be what the US neocons conjectured to be. The time has to be after Taiwan has been up-gunned a bit.
However, China would not be isolated in the UN, and China probably doesn't care. For all the bad things about China, being realistic in their diplomacy is not one of their weakness. China needs a longer prep time to deal with Japan militarily, ignores Phillippine, and needs Australia only for minerals. Blocking the Strait of Malacca against Chinese shipping is enough cause for China to take countermeasures without infuriating the international community. Therefore I don't think the US will attempt a naval blockade easily. In comparison, tariffs, restrictions on visas in STEM fields, and export control hurt China quickly and deeply.
It's not my thinking... well it is, but it's my projection of what the neo-conservatives are thinking. The SMO with Russia should be an indication of my low opinion of their grasp on reality.
Thank you. And the China-Taiwan/US proxy war as conjectured by US neocons likely will have a different path from the SMO. To the minimal, Chinese in China are different from Russians, and Chinese in Taiwan are different from Ukrainians. The economic dependencies are different, etc. But I agree with you that based on the track record of the neocons, they will misjudge the situation and launch another proxy war by mistake. My hypothesis is that the US Navy and contractors for the Navy did not make much money from the current SMO and now here is their prize coming up.
In the old days of the USA and UK empire, the prize money from seazed merchant ships created a lot of the old family wealth in New England/England that went on to capitalize the opium trade with China. History attempts to rhyme, but it often comes out garbled.
I don't think their plans in different areas are that well coordinated. Re China - yes the plan is to create a shock everywhere. Then request fealty from those Asian countries that are still willing - in particular to have them stick to US/G7 financial services and not start using Yuan payments. They don't actually care about reciprocal tariffs, as evidenced by rejection of the "0% for 0%" by Taiwan and Vietnam.
The domestic investment, if there's money for it left after tax cuts and military spending increase, will fall far short of equalizing trade deficit. Pretty sure they plan, instead, to have G7 assist in devaluation/inflation while supporting capital flow to the US (ie by sacrificing their own domestic investment). Thus diluting the substantial % of US assets accumulated in last 40 years by US trade partners. At the same time, tax cuts and other predatory shenanigans will keep the wealthy within the US - at least those who sing Trump's tune - from having their wealth diluted at the expense of debtors (esp the general public).
But as we've already seen a bunch, the Trump/Biden crews are arrogant, overconfident, badly informed about those they antagonize, while the rest of the world has their character pretty well figured out by now.